Crude oil prices forecast to decline beginning in the second half of 2023
In our January 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook, we forecast the Brent crude oil price (the global benchmark) will rise from an average $81 per barrel (b) in December 2022 to average $83/b in the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23). We expect this forecast increase to follow the upcoming EU ban on seaborne imports of petroleum […]
Wholesale U.S. electricity prices were volatile in 2022
Average wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs in the United States rose throughout much of 2022 and were, at times, volatile as a result of extreme weather events. The limited availability of coal to substitute for higher-priced natural gas also contributed to higher electricity prices.
Average 2022 wholesale U.S. natural gas cost more than any time since 2008
In 2022, the wholesale U.S. natural gas spot price at the national benchmark Henry Hub in Louisiana averaged $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest annual average—in both real and nominal terms—since 2008, based on data from Refinitiv Eikon. The 2022 average Henry Hub real natural gas spot price increased over 53% from […]
U.S. retail gasoline prices rose in summer but ended 2022 lower than start of 2022
Rising crude oil prices and increased gasoline demand early in 2022 contributed to rising U.S. retail gasoline prices in the summer, but gasoline prices ended 2022 lower than at the start of the year because of more refinery production and less demand during the second half of the year.
Crude oil prices increased in first-half 2022 and declined in second-half 2022
In the final trading day of 2022, the spot price of Brent crude oil, a global benchmark priced in Northwest Europe, closed at $85 per barrel (b), $7 higher than the price on January 3, 2022 ($78/b). The Brent price rose significantly in the first half of 2022 but generally declined in the second half […]
Energy commodity prices in 2022 showed effects of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
After increasing 68% from January through June, the energy component of the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) ended the year 10% higher than the first trading day of 2022. Global events—notably Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has been ongoing since last February—have contributed to greater volatility in the energy sub-index and higher prices […]
Rates to hire tankers for refined petroleum products reach multiyear highs during 2022
Rates for petroleum product tankers that carry low-sulfur petroleum products, including refined petroleum products such as motor gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, and naphtha, reached multiyear highs this summer. Rates for these tankers, known as clean tankers, remained elevated through November, driven largely by the effects of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Global allowance prices for CO2 emissions increased by over 40% in 2021
Average allowance prices for CO2 emissions increased by over 40% in four of the world’s five largest carbon emissions trading systems between January 2021 and January 2022, according to data from the International Carbon Action Partnership.
Natural gas consumption in the industrial sector has grown slowly in recent years
In the industrial sector, natural gas consumption in the United States increased by 1.9% in 2021. In our November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that it will increase by 2.4% in 2022. We expect U.S. industrial consumption will reach record highs in 2022, which will reverse a multiyear downward trend caused by reduced economic […]
U.S. dry natural gas production set monthly records in 2022; we forecast an annual record
U.S. dry natural gas production has increased during 2022, averaging more than 100 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in October and November and exceeding pre-pandemic monthly production records from 2019. We forecast that U.S. production of dry natural gas will average about 100.0 Bcf/d from December through March, down about 0.5 Bcf/d from November. […]